Bush to Campaign for Sodrel in Sellersburg

October Surprise
In defiance of pretty much all conventional wisdom about the President's national polling numbers, George W. Bush will be in Sellersburg on October 28 for a campaign rally for Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel. The Courier-Journal, the News & Tribune, and the Seymour Tribune have reporting on the announcement of the visit.

President Bush will hold a public rally in Sellersburg Saturday to benefit incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, a Republican in a tough battle against a former Democratic congressman.

Bush will speak in the Silver Creek High School gymnasium at about 1 p.m., said Sodrel's campaign manager Cam Savage.

Tickets are free and will be distributed through the Sodrel campaign and county Republican parties throughout the 9th Congressional District.

It will be the first presidential visit to the district since Lyndon Johnson visited Clark County in 1964, said Savage.

"It's a great opportunity right before the election to energize the base," Savage said. "People are going to hear directly from the president about how important this election is, how important keeping control of Congress is to win the war on terror, keep taxes low, and keep the economy moving in the right direction."

Sodrel is battling for a second term against Democrat Baron Hill, who held the seat for six years before losing to the Republican in 2004. Libertarian Eric Schansberg is also running.

Political pundits say the race is too close to call.

Mike O'Connor, an advisor to Hill's campaign, said Republicans are "making one last push and will pull out all the stops to keep change from occurring."

"It's not unexpected," O'Connor said. "I don't want to underestimate the power of the commander in chief, but people want change and we think they'll support change
in the people they’re sending to Washington D.C."

I must say that, despite hearing that a big event was being planned by the Sodrel campaign for the last weekend in October, I am surprised that they have asked the President to come. His approval rating polling in the 9th District--in the low forties--is above his national average but still a far cry from what it was in 2002 or 2004. But then, Bush is visiting some forty Congressional districts as a part of this campaign push, so he must not be toxic.

It is true that a president has not come to the 9th District since 1964, so this is a big deal in that respect. Bush will rally the faithful, but preaching to the choir will not win for Sodrel this election. Certainly, the NRCC, the RNC, and the Sodrel campaign will have done polling in advance of a visit to determine whether it will help or not, so one must assume that they have seen something in the polling to make them think that the conventional wisdom is wrong.

From the beginning, the Sodrel campaign has believed two things. First, that this is naturally a conservative (and thus Republican district); this is confirmed by routinely conservatives outnumbering liberals in polling samples by at least two to one. Second, that they can win on social wedge issues by hammering Baron Hill on his voting record and by sinking him with the anchor of the entire rest of the Democratic Party.

Mike Sodrel's campaign has rested upon motivating and turning out the base. This is the Karl Rove strategy that won the last two elections for the Republicans. Were the national environment for Republicans not so poor, this strategy would probably easily work again in the 9th District. It could still yet conceivably do so.

All polling is predicated on traditional midterm turnout, which in 2002 was 38%. In 2004, presidential election year turnout was 58% (56% in 2004). I would guess that the Sodrel campaign's strategy is a simple one. The Republicans have a phenomenal ground game, both here and nationwide. Whatever contested seats they do win on November 7 will be attributable entirely to efforts on the ground. If Sodrel can push up turnout among conservative voters to be higher (in a statistically-significant way) than the normal midterm average, he will win.

That's where the Bush visit must come into play. Bush can energize the faithful and conservatives in general. In particular, he can motivate the sorts of volunteers that will be vital to make the Republican ground game a success. The play is to solidify the volunteers, and thus pump up the volunteers to turn out the base.

We'll see if that can work. I am going to try to be at the rally in Sellersburg on Saturday. I'll hopefully take some pictures and post on it afterwards.