Baron Hill for Governor?

Already looking ahead?
It took a while, but Baron Hill has finally managed to mention his signature campaign issue for the first time after being reelected. He has finally spoken about his rather interesting ethics committee reform idea in an interview with his hometown paper, the Seymour Tribune.

In it, Hill is interestingly mum on a question about the possibility of a run for governor. He also has interesting ideas about the nature of any reelection campaign he might face:

Hill said he isn't concentrating on the 2008 election right now.

"I haven't even given it any kind of thought," Hill said when asked if he will run for Indiana governor in 2008. "All I wanted to do was get elected to Congress."

Although he hasn't given much thought to an office he might run for, Hill said he would not like to see another negative campaign such as the last two he's endured.

"I'm trying to think, what do I do? I've been through it twice and I've almost won one and survived the second one," Hill said. "Maybe I should just stick to the issues and not respond to it all.

"When somebody hits you on the chin, your reaction naturally is to hit them back and that is what we did this time, but I don't know," he added. "I would like to be able to just ignore it since I have been through it two times and see if I can survive it, if it happens again. Maybe it won't happen at all."

Maybe the next campaign won't be negative at all? If Hill believes that, then I have some ocean-front property in Harrison County for sale.

The 9th District is a battleground. Barring a Goldwater-style landslide for the Democratic nominee, it will go heavily for the Republican presidential candidate in 2008, with a matching trickle-down effect. That sort of tide took Hill down once before, and the Republican National Committee--eager to regain its Congressional majority--is likely to remember a fact like that.

At any rate, I suppose that Hill is a natural and serious contender to run for governor in 2008 against Mitch Daniels, the incumbent and presumptive Republican nominee. The Republican sweep of statewide elections has deprived the Democrats of a natural proving ground for a future gubernatorial candidate.

Pat Bauer is focused elsewhere. Bart Peterson is from Indianapolis which, as a long line of defeated Republican Indy mayors can tell you, comes with a whole host of disadvantages relative to the rest of the state. Pete Visclosky has the usual political baggage from the Northwestern corner of the state. The other incumbent Democratic congressmen are genuine freshmen, unlike Hill.

On the negative side, Baron Hill has run for statewide office before. In 1990, he ran for the Senate against Dan Coats. That didn't go so well; he lost by almost eight percent and over a hundred thousand votes. Granted, that's not a Lugar or Bayh margin, but it's a genuine "thumpin'", as George W. Bush would put it.

But then, that defeat was also sixteen years ago. Hill was young and inexperienced. He has undoubtedly grown since then. His profile is greater, and his party is short of moderate candidates with good name recognition that could have a go at Mitch Daniels.

And given his apparent aversion to negative campaigning--or at least being on the receiving end of one--Baron Hill may find a 2008 campaign against Mitch Daniels a pleasant experience. Certainly more pleasant than having to face the millions the RNC will throw at him in the 9th District on behalf of whoever the Republicans get to run against him, be it Mike Sodrel again or someone else.

If Daniels charges hard on his reform agenda in the coming two years and takes as many (or more) political hits for it as he did in the past two, it could present the ambitious Baron Hill with an opportunity that is not likely to repeat itself. Mayors of Indianapolis have serious natural baggage to overcome in the rest of the state.

If no one else steps up, Baron Hill could find himself as the Democrats' natural alternative to running Bart Peterson.