The Times, They Are A Changing

The Contender
Just as speculation comes about the clout of Indiana's congressional delegation being on the wane, Mike Pence has thrown his hat into the ring as a candidate to become Minority Leader, the head of the House Republicans. The official letter of intent is here. Robert Novak has a rather cynical look at the coming Republican leadership race.

It would be nice for Pence to get the position. Heck, it would be nice for Hoosiers to have posts high in the leadership of both parties. Washington needs some of that Midwestern sensibility, and Indiana could use the extra Federal dollars that would inevitably come our way from it. Moreover, Mike Pence is a man of ideas (whether you agree with conservative ideas or not), and this country needs new ideas. This all being said, I don't think that he has much of a chance.

John Boehner, the current Majority Leader, is probably going to hang on. He has not been in the position very long. Joe Barton doesn't inspire much confidence, having voted against extending the Voting Rights Act and having a long laundry list of controversial quotes already handy in his Wikipedia article.

Mike Pence, while known as somebody with new ideas and seen as a fresh face, probably simply just hasn't donated enough money to his fellow Republicans to secure the leadership. Money matters. As I pointed out in the Hostettler political obituary, that's an objective fact; it matters regardless of principles.

I'd give Pence an outside chance to win. He'd certainly be better than Texas' Joe Barton or Ohio's John Boehner, but the smart money seems to be on Boehner. The Republicans would probably stand a better chance of winning back the House in 2008 with fresh ideas from somebody like Pence, but the party is not conservative (in the resistant to change sense) for nothing.

Of course, the smart money was on Roy Blunt to become Majority Leader after Tom DeLay left. John Boehner beat him out, and Roy Blunt stayed as Majority Whip. I suspect that Blunt's number is now up, and someone like Arizona's John Shadegg (who also ran for Majority Leader in that contest and lost) is going to get it.

Boehner, it should be noted, got the Majority Leader post after Shadegg dropped out after the first ballot. Shadegg threw his support behind Boehner, who might now be backing Shadegg to return the favor.

In private balloting like this, where there can be multiple rounds of voting, backroom maneuvering and the ability to call in favors matters beyond all normal weight in normal voting situations. At the same time, the Republicans may be much more willing to vote for change than normal given the defeat they have just suffered. Therein lies Pence's outside chance.