The AG Race: Rokita Rising

Here are the latest rumors and innuendo (and out the other) that I have heard about the attorney general's race over the past day or so.

I am surprised to the extent to which Attorney General Steve Carter is disliked, and his office viewed as full of problems and shortcomings by those that had to deal with it or depended upon it. While such comments are typical on partisan blogs of other stripes, I am now hearing these things from more reliable Republican sources and others on the right.

Normally, politicians become more popular after they leave office or bow out of the political arena. This does not seem to be the case with Steve Carter. He seems less popular now--at least publicly--than he was before he declined to seek reelection for a third term.

None of the things I am hearing about Carter's time in office and the efficacy of his staff (assuming they are true) bode well for Carter's chosen replacement, Greg Zoeller.

Bartholomew County (the home of Columbus) and Washington County (the less-populated home of Salem) held their Lincoln Day Dinners on Thursday night. *The* annual event for local Republican Party organizations, these events are always packed with candidates or their surrogates in election years, and the tables are always covered with campaign literature.

Not so this time, at least when it comes to the attorney general race. Columbus is a sizeable city, so Bartholomew County's Lincoln Day Dinner--close to Indianapolis and relatively centrally-located--normally swarms with candidates and their surrogates. Washington County, being so close the the home base of Greg Zoeller, probably should have seen him campaigning there. 9th District congressional candidate Mike Sodrel, for example, made it to both events in one evening.

I have been told, however, that none of the potential candidates were present at either event, nor were any visible surrogates. Moreover, the sudden announcement of Carter's departure apparently left potential campaigns unable to prepare literature; there were also no flyers or brochures out at either location.

The absence of candidates or campaigning sits in stark contrast to the campaigning going on in the State House. Rumor has it that both Todd Rokita and Greg Zoeller are in the process of making the rounds at the State House to sound out support among the various Republican powers-that-be; I am told that both will get mixed reactions.

And yes, Rokita is making the rounds at the State House. He seems intent upon running.

The fact that the earliest known candidates, Zoeller and Rokita, find it more important to campaign in the State House rather than at county party events, indicates that they expect to gain more out of currying favor with Republican officials than they might gain in actually meeting the likely delegates that will choose from among them at the convention. That's an interesting calculation on their part.

The day has also seen developments on a number of other potential candidacies.

The same day that Brian Howey proclaimed him to be the frontrunner and "the man to beat" in the Attorney General race, Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi announced that he was not interested in running (the photos of him with scantily-clad women at drunken parties would hurt him in much of the rest of Indiana, to be sure). The quantity of egg on Howey's face is nothing new.

Little more has been heard about potential candidates Tom Wheeler or Brent Steele, but the presence of Todd Rokita at Wednesday's Elkhart County Lincoln Day would seem to indicate no challenge will be forthcoming from Curtis Hill (Elkhart being his home county). This is generally confirmed by what I am hearing from other sources; Hill is not interested.

The new candidate appearing on the radar is Kyle Hupfer, the general counsel for Proliance Energy and the former director of the Department of Natural Resources during the first two years of the Daniels cabinet. The name of the thirty-something attorney was previously counted among those considering a run for mayor of Indianapolis (and later was among those that decided not to go up against what was then seen as the invincible Peterson machine).

Todd Rokita seems to remain the prohibitive favorite, and there seems as yet to be no one alternative around which avowed social conservative opponents of the Secretary of State can rally.

But, as one source pointedly told me, "It's a long time until the convention."

Again, if you've got a rumor you want to share, my email address is over on the right.