The Attorney General Horserace

It's Wednesday night / Thursday morning, and there still is nothing out there explaining Steve Carter's mysterious decision to stand aside and not seek a third term as Indiana's attorney general.

More and more, I tend to favor my suspicion voiced on Monday night, namely that the timing of the departure was designed to give advantage to Carter's favored replacement, his deputy Greg Zoeller.

Regardless of the absence of information on the reasons behind Carter's decision, however, there is plenty out there about the race among Republicans to replace him as the GOP nominee in November.

First, of course, comes Secretary of State Todd Rokita, who is apparently definitely interested or at least putting out serious feelers on a possible candidacy. Term-limited in his current job, Rokita (and/or his people) are apparently seriously eyeing a convention bid for the position, probably to an extent that has thus far been underestimated or at least misread downward.

Weighing in against Rokita, however, are movement social conservatives (something about a gay pride parade). Many apparently view the Secretary of State as unpalatable, if not completely unacceptable, and there is already a movement afoot to find someone else. Already, some social conservative leaders are reportedly promising to try to block any candidacy by Rokita or defeat him in a convention floor fight.

The Governor, who likes Rokita generally, may be privately favorable to his candidacy; sufficiently favorable, perhaps, to endorse him. Others tell me that the Governor may not endorse anyone. Some speculate that this is not least because in a contested convention process his endorsement might not carry sufficient weight and might embarrassingly be overridden. Whether the Governor, who is not exactly in the good graces of social conservatives, would seek to go against them with regard to Rokita is an open question.

With his many overseas trips, racial gaffes, and questionable hiring practices Todd Rokita is far from an ideal candidate. Such negatives, however, are offset by his proven campaign skill, considerable name ID, existing organization, and on-hand campaign war chest. A strong movement by social conservatives, if they can find an alternative to rally behind, could well scupper Rokita's convention chances.

The man who hopes to be the conservative alternative to Todd Rokita is Greg Zoeller, Steve Carter's deputy and apparent chosen successor. Zoeller is pushing hard, though he has a number of hurdles to overcome about which I blogged earlier. These are not insignificant, but if Zoeller becomes the "conservative alternative" to Rokita (and social conservatives see him as more acceptable than the Secretary of State), his road would become considerably easier.

Tom Wheeler, the Chairman of the Election Commission, is apparently likewise interested in the position (though rumors of his interest vary depending on who you talk to). Two sources, however, indicate that his interest is considerably dampened by the mediocre pay of the Attorney General position. This is evidently becoming a common negative consideration among many of the potential candidates whose names have been mentioned.

Odds and rumors do not seem to favor Carl Brizzi, whose interest is in question. The very idea of Brizzi, a moderate whose ambitions seem to lay within Indianapolis and Marion County, running for this statewide office may well only be a sparkle in the eye of Indy GOP gray eminence Bob Grand.

The name of Elkhart County Prosecutor Curtis Hill has been variously bantered about on the Internets in recent days. Hill has made no statement with regard to this; his interest in running is questionable. Speculation involving him running could be a trial balloon to gauge interest in a future candidacy for something else.

Another interesting rumor I have heard, confirmed by some and said by others to merely be a similar trial balloon by others, is that of State Senator Brent Steele (R, Bedford). An amiable conservative from the 4th District, Steele hails from Becky Skillman's old Senate seat. He is from the southern areas of the state, but not from the 8th and the 9th (which already have a statewide officer and candidate, respectively). The Senator thus does not suffer from the same geographical handicaps of others such Zoeller (excluding, obviously, being from the same area as Becky Skillman). He, like several others, could be seen as a conservative alternative to Rokita, or even a compromise candidate between various party factions.

At the moment, the winds seem to favor an effort by Todd Rokita. There are storm clouds of a social conservative challenge on Rokita's horizon, however, and the social conservatives could find themselves aligned behind any number of potential alternative candidates in an effort to block--or at least send a message to--a candidate that they seem to find to be unacceptable. Whether that candidate is Greg Zoeller, Curtis Hill, Tom Wheeler, Brent Steele, or someone yet unknown remains to be seen.

If you've heard something about the attorney general's race and want to share it (I will always respect anonymity), feel free to drop me an email. My address is over at the top on the right.