New Poll: Stick a Fork in JLT, She's Done

Survey USA has a new poll out, and it shows some very interesting results in both the presidential race and the gubernatorial race (presidential crosstabs here).

Incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels leads Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson by 5 points, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati.

Today, it's Daniels and Lt. Governor Becky Skillman 50%, Long Thompson and running mate Dennie Oxley 45%. Among men, Daniels leads by 8 points; among women, Daniels leads by 3. 15% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democratic ticket; 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican ticket. Independents favor Daniels by 3 points.

On its face, that's a typical result, right?

Another poll, another lead for Mitch. Even JLT's polling shows Mitch in the lead.

So why are certain Democrat blogs so happy and joyful?

In a word? Schadenfreude; Wagner and Cook never liked JLT anyway.

They're also delusional (you don't merely "cling" to a 5 point lead when even your candidate's polling shows your opponent ahead, along with every other poll; their spin is truly hilarious to behold).

Let's look for a moment at the polling sample.

The Survey USA poll is based upon a sample that includes 2% more Democrats than Republicans, and this same poll shows Obama one point ahead of McCain.

Now, have the Democrats seen a growth in party identification in Indiana given the primary process? Almost certainly.

Have they seen a growth in party identification that would bring them ahead of Republicans in this, the most Republican of states? I doubt it.

The poll likely oversamples Democrats, so the paper-thin Obama edge is hardly surprising.

But think about it slightly differently.

This poll, with its abnormal oversampling of Democrats shows that Mitch Daniels leads by five points. In the wake of his great response (bipartisan-acclaimed) to the recent flooding, JLT's lite gov announcement of Dennie Ray II to pander to southern Indiana voters that will despise her liberal stances, a divisive Republican convention process, and the Democrat convention, Mitch still leads handily.

He has an advantage of almost two-to-one around Indianapolis and the collar counties, for example. He leads by 12% in non-donut Central Indiana, and 11% in southern Indiana.

This poll represents a worst-case scenario for the Republicans: a surge in Democrat party ID over them that is without historical precedent or analogue, and a narrow win for their presidential nominee (the first since 1964).

And yet Mitch Daniels still wins handily.

Come election day in the Hoosier state, it is unlikely that Democrat party ID will surpass Republicans in exit polling.

The fact that this poll assumes it will, and still shows Mitch Daniels winning, shows just how seriously far ahead the Governor is at this point over his opponent's campaign to become State Fire Baton Twirler. It also shows how bad of a position the Long Thompson - Oxley campaign is presently in.

She'll be going hard negative any day now, at least as negative as her paltry campaign contributions will let her afford. She has no choice.

Stick a fork in her; she's done.