Tie Game

The same Newsweek poll that showed the Obamassiah beating John McCain by 15% a months ago now shows them in a statistical tie:

A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.

Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper.

The daily tracking poll from Rasmussen Reports shows the race as a more basic tie (nevermind the statistical tie stuff) for two days straight:

For the second straight day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the race for the White House is tied. Sunday’s numbers show Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points.

The Newsweek poll is a poll of registered voters. As anyone with any knowledge at all about polling can tell you, a poll of registered (as opposed to likely) voters is useless. You might as well not do a poll at all.

Because anywhere from forty percent to a full half of all registered voters do not vote on election day, polls are useful only when they sample likely voters.

It is in a Newsweek poll of registered voters (which tend to favor Democrats by about ten or so points) that the Obamassiah led by fifteen (when other polls gave him a much smaller lead).

It is basically unheard of for polls of registered voters to show Democrats in ties or in losing scenarios, even when polls of likely voters show them tied or losing.

In August of 2004, for example, polling of registered voters gave John Kerry a six-point lead.

For the Obamassiah to now be in a statistical tie with John McCain among registered voters is an ominous indicator indeed at this point for the Candidate of Change (to say nothing of the dead heat among likely voters).

More importantly, it's quite obvious that his endless flip-flops have brought a swift end to the Obamassiah's all-to-brief primary bounce.

Heck, a recent CNN poll (hat tip: Hot Air) has shown the Obamassiah slipping among Democrats:

One week after Sen. Hillary Clinton made a public show of unity with Sen. Barack Obama, a new survey suggests supporters of the New York senator are increasingly less likely to follow her lead.

A growing number of Clinton supporters polled say they may stay home in November instead of casting their ballot for Obama, an indication the party has yet to coalesce around the Illinois senator four weeks after the most prolonged and at times divisive primary race in modern American history came to a close.

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday, the number of Clinton supporters who plan to defect to Republican Sen. John McCain’s camp is down from one month ago, but — in what could be an ominous sign for Obama as he seeks to unify the party — the number of them who say they plan to vote for Obama is also down, and a growing number say they may not vote at all.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey completed in early June before the New York senator ended her White House bid, 60 percent of Clinton backers polled said they planned on voting for Obama. In the latest poll, that number has dropped to 54 percent.

The appeal of McCain to Democrats (converse to the distaste many conservatives have for him) should not be underestimated in an environment when the Democratic Party has undergone such a divisive primary process.