A Look at 2010

In Indiana, from DailyKos:

Indiana

If Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh runs for a third term - and as yet, there's no indication he won't - he's a virtual lock to be reelected. Even if he didn't (suppose he got some appointment in the Obama administration), Dems would have a decent chance of keeping the seat with someone like Rep. Baron Hill.

Speaking of Hill, the Republicans may just put up former Rep. Mike Sodrel again to run against him (for their fifth matchup). He doesn't seem to have much else to do.

Republican Mark Souder has had two tough challenges in a row, putting up 54% in 2006 and 55% in 2008. He'd be out of a job if his district weren't so overwhelmingly Republican.

All the other Republicans should be favored to win reelection. Barring a retirement, don't expect much action in Indiana at the House level.

The Republicans can probably make a good run at one Democratic Congressman. Whether that run comes in the 2nd, 8th, or 9th will depend on candidate recruitment in the coming months.

I don't think that Mike Sodrel will run again; I know of at least two names looking at challenging Baron Hill. One is Todd Young, whose name was floated briefly before Sodrel decided to run again. The other is Aaron Hankins, who had something of a campaign in this past cycle that in the end never went anywhere.

Other names that have appeared in the past in the 9th and are the subject of the current round of parlor games include Floyd County Prosecutor Keith Henderson (of David Camm trial fame), IU basketball legend Kent Benson, and newly-elected Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Bennett (if the elected post is to be done away with as a part of government reforms, as is rumored).

The rest of the Republican bench is relatively thin; the GOP holds a number of mayorships in the district, but the 9th has no especially large cities and those that could be considered "large" either aren't big enough or have Democratic mayors.

There aren't a lot of GOP state legislators in the 9th, and those present have espoused no Congressional ambitions in the past, though this could just be a result of eight years of Sodrel running. Newly-elected legislators (Ed Clere and Mark Messmer) just got into office and probably won't turn around and pursue a Congressional campaign; there are no Jon Elrods here.

Last, but not least, you have the (former?) Libertarian candidate, Eric Schansberg, about whom there has been some speculation of a party-change to run as a Republican. If he could bring in national assistance in terms of big money and lots of volunteers from the supporters of Ron Paul (a test case in their manifesto to remake the Republican Party, perhaps), a Schansberg candidacy could make the race quite interesting.

Moving on to the 3rd District, Souder will probably be safe. I haven't surveyed the terrain in the 2nd and the 8th in the wake of the victories by Donnelly and Ellsworth, so I won't venture an opinion as yet about possible challenger candidacies in those districts. As Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid will tell you, an awful lot depends upon candidate recruitment in the coming couple of months.

It's too soon to tell whether Bayh will be safe in the Senate race. He is apparently retaining big political talent in expectation of a serious challenge, though. Already, I have heard of one name circulating as a possible Republican challenger to our plastic senator, namely Lake County attorney Dan Dumezich.

On top of it all, the Secretary of State race is a wild card (Hamilton County GOP Chairman Charlie White has shown early interest) and the Treasurer and Auditor races will probably be sedate and affairs with little change or challenge.