There was an intriguing and rather misleading op-ed this week in the Indianapolis Star by Sheila Suess Kennedy, a professor at IU.
We saw recent evidence -- preliminary and tentative, to be sure -- that the massive public participation generated by Barack Obama's presidential campaign may prove more durable than most of us imagined. Spontaneous demonstrations against the Nov. 4 passage of California's Proposition 8 erupted across the country. (Prop 8 amended the California constitution and repealed the right to same-sex marriage.
Think about the irony of this for a moment. Obama carried California 61% to 37%. Proposition 8 passed 52% to 48%. Since it's unlikely that someone came to the polls to vote against Prop 8 but not vote for President, that means that around one Obama voter in six voted for the measure.
In reality, the proportion was probably higher (especially if you assume that not every McCain voter voted in favor of it). Exit polling, for example, has
indicated that 70% of African Americans (who voted overwhelmingly for Obama) also voted for Prop 8. One Republican voter in five voted against Prop 8. One Democratic voter in three voted for it.
Maybe that "massive public participation generated by Barack Obama's presidential campaign" has had some unintended consequences.
Could it be that the people spoke, and some of Obama's supporters--or more accurately opponents of Prop 8--didn't like what they had to say?
With so much opposition, why did Proposition 8 pass?
The New York Times reported on the "11th-hour effort that saved the ban," which ultimately garnered 52 percent of the vote. According to the Times, "Interviews with the main forces behind the ballot measure show how close its backers believe it came to defeat -- and the extraordinary role Mormons played in helping to pass it with money, institutional support and dedicated volunteers."
One of the most sickening things about the reaction to the passage of Prop 8 has been the tendency of its opponents to focus on Mormons as being responsible (or to blame) for its passage.
Since Prop 8 passed, Mormons have been victim to an ugly backlash from Prop 8 opponents. White powder has been mailed to two Mormon churches, causing anthrax scares. In the ten days after the election, ten Mormon churches in the area around San Francisco and seven in Utah were vandalized; more vandalism than statistics would indicate they would normally receive in an entire year. The FBI may treat and investigate such incidents as hate crimes.
A wide variety of church and religious organizations (including Catholic, Jewish, and Evangelical groups, not just Mormons) had a profound impact in favor of the measure, to say nothing of the impact of black churches. Such groups as the Knights of Columbus, Focus on the Family, and Rick Warren's Saddleback Church were in favor of Prop 8; to attribute its passage largely to the efforts of Mormons is misleading and wrongly singles out one group out of many, to say nothing of the ugly treatment of Mormons and the vandalism of Mormon churches since the election.
When the campaign began, a clear majority of California voters opposed Proposition 8. When polls in mid-October showed voters continuing to reject the ban, supporters raised enormous amounts of money for advertisements that claimed churches would lose their tax exemptions if they refused to perform same-sex ceremonies and elementary schools would be forced to "teach homosexuality" to children. Both of these claims were demonstrably false. Worse, proponents clearly knew their ads were dishonest. But they were effective.
This isn't entirely true; an LA Times KTLA Poll in May showed Prop 8
passing 54% to 35% (a margin that the LA Times interestingly termed "narrow" at the time), and most of the polling was within the margin of error from late September onward.
I haven't seen any of the Prop 8 ads, but even taking the author's word for them being negative and dishonest, one can't help but wonder if there's going to be a movement afoot to make John McCain the next President, since he was also a victim of ads that were "demonstrably false" and "dishonest," even if they were effective. I'd better get out my poster board, my markers, and get ready to have a few protests of my own.
Negative ads, a certain member of Congress once said, work.
But then, complaining against negative ads generally and almost exclusively is the province and vocation of the people that lose because of them.
California is a huge state, and advertising is costly. Opponents of Prop 8 simply didn't have the resources to effectively counter the distortions, even though Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and the California Teachers Association all cut ads rebutting the charges. In the end, money talked. It was politics as usual.
This just isn't true.
Supporters of Prop 8 were, overall, outspent by almost two million dollars ($35.8 million to $37.6 million). But, again, I'm waiting for the movement to overturn the presidential election results because John McCain "didn't have the resources to effectively counter the distortions" put out about him by his opponents. I won't hold my breath.
But to say that Prop 8 won because of some vast fundraising advantage just isn't true. Opponents of Prop 8 spent more money than its advocates, hardly an endorsement of a theory that money talked and that the passage of Prop 8 was politics as usual.
But then a strange thing happened. Citizens all across America decided to flex the civic muscles they had just discovered they had.
I don't know what comes next, but it promises to be very interesting.
I'm doubting the hypothesis that the Obama campaign represents a new civic awakening among Americans, at least as it pertains to Prop 8. I'm inclined to think that there would have been protests on the passage of the measure with or without Obama's presidential campaign and its marshaling of new voters and new participants in the political process.
Morris Udall, after finishing second in a Democratic presidential primary in 1976, famously said, "The people have spoken, the bastards."
The people spoke. They didn't speak because they were hoodwinked by lots of negative ads, or misled by hordes of Mormon missionaries, or because the winning side vastly outspent the other. And even if they did, dwelling on such things is somewhat counterproductive and unfortunate.
And the people are also speaking when it comes to protests about the result. That's the beauty of America.
In two years (or sooner still), there could very well be a proposition on the ballot in California to overturn Proposition 8. It wouldn't surprise me in the least.
But at least if such a measure passed, it would pass on its merits and California would have gay marriage because the people voted to have it, not because it was imposed by a small group of unelected judges. I also think that, if it passed, there wouldn't be protests against it in public squares across the United States (or potential hate crimes against its supporters, or blacklists, or whatever other ugly backlash).