Obama's Usefulness on the Campaign Trail

Geraghty has the numbers:

Votes for Democrat Jon Corzine in Newark, New Jersey, in 2005: 39,573.

Votes for Corzine in Newark in 2009, two days after Obama hosted a rally for him there: 35,669.

Votes for Jon Corzine in Camden County in 2005: 76,955.

Votes for Jon Corzine in Camden County in 2009, two days after Obama hosted a rally for him there: 66,996.

Votes for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine in Norfolk in 2005: 27,791.

Votes for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in Norfolk in 2009, roughly a week after Obama hosted a rally for him: 24,004.

Never mind that Obama couldn't get Corzine and Deeds over the top; he couldn't ensure that they did as well as they or other Democrats did in the same races for the same offices four years ago, in the heavily Democratic cities he appeared in.

There's a valuable lesson for vulnerable Democrats sweating their votes on the health-care bill. If you vote yes, you will probably outrage right-leaning voters in your district, and many independents will fear you've made things worse.

But sometime between now and Election Day 2010, President Obama will come to the biggest city in your district and hold a big rally. Thousands will turn out, you will dominate the news cycle, and it will be the best day of your campaign.

And then, in all likelihood, you will lose, because everyone in that crowd of thousands was going to vote for you anyway, and what you won't see are the tens of thousands who didn't show up because they don't care that President Obama thinks you deserve to be reelected.

So, which Hoosier Democrat up for reelection in 2010 is going to call Obama in for a rally after they've voted for many unpopular elements of Obama's agenda? Will it be Joe Donnelly? Brad Ellsworth? Baron Hill? Evan Bayh?

It seems likely like that Obama's appearance at such an event won't matter and might even (among Hoosiers) hurt the person Obama wants reelected.

I'm reminded of George W. Bush's campaign rally for Mike Sodrel in October of 2006. It was a big campaign rally. Thousands turned out. It dominated the news cycle. It was the best day of Sodrel's campaign.

And then Sodrel lost anyway, because there were tens of thousands who didn't show up because they didn't care that George W. Bush thought that Mike Sodrel should have been reelected, and there were probably a couple of thousand people that decided that if Mike Sodrel's reelection was so important to George W. Bush, they should vote against Mike Sodrel.

It's going to be interesting to see if Baron Hill (or another Hoosier Democrat) puts himself in that position come next year.