That's Not a Bribe, That's a Bailout

Lots of attention has been given to the interesting timing of Evan Bayh to give a million dollars from his defunct campaign to the Indiana Democratic Party to help Brad the Beautiful's Senate bid.

The Hotline has the story:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D) announced today that he has contributed $1M of his campaign cash to help Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) succeed him in the Senate.

"This is a million dollar vote of confidence in Brad Ellsworth and Indiana Democrats," said Bayh. "Though I am leaving the Senate at the end of my term, I am determined to help Brad Ellsworth and the 2010 Democratic ticket with the financial resources they need to run a successful campaign."

The contribution is "the largest donation ever by an individual not on the ballot," according to a press release from the IN Dems.

"This unprecedented contribution will be put to good use in electing Brad Ellsworth ... and in helping Democrats from the top of the ticket on down," said IN Dem Chair Dan Parker.

The decision follows weeks of speculation over what Bayh would do with his almost $13M campaign warchest following his Feb. announcement that he would not run for re-election.

Coming as it did on the heels of the health care vote, you could be forgiven for thinking that this was a bribe to get Ellsworth to vote for ObamaCare.

I think you'd be wrong. Ellsworth, ultimately, had no choice when it came to voting for ObamaCare. If he didn't vote for it, then the state committee of the Indiana Democratic Party was going to punish him by picking somebody else to run for the United States Senate.

When you have that sort of leverage over somebody, you don't need to worry about bribing them. It's not like Ellsworth could just go back to running for his House seat (somebody else is already running for it on the Democratic ticket). Nope. Ellsworth's political career is over if the state party denies him the Senate bid.

So there was no need for Birch's Boy to bribe Brad the Beautiful. And that's why this wasn't a bribe.

It's a bailout.

Brad Ellsworth's campaign, according to recent reporting by Brian Howey, it hasn't been going very good:

Ellsworth appears to be wavering, not only to just HPI, but to a number of Democrats we talked to during all the St. Patrick's Day events yesterday. The Ellsworth office/campaign no longer returns calls just seeking his current status. We heard this over and over from Democrats who hope he succeeds: that Ellsworth may be in over his head with the Senate run. He doesn't have the astute political operatives and braintrust surrounding him, unlike Hill and Donnelly. He struggles making tough decisions and the one coming up this weekend will be the toughest of his career.

Ellsworth trails badly in polling. He is eighteen points behind his old opponent former Congressman John Hostettler. He is fifteen points behind former Senator Dan Coats. He is seven points behind State Senator Marlin Stutzman.

Evan Bayh's million-dollar check isn't a vote of confidence in Brad Ellsworth.

Far from it.

It's an indication of how genuinely bad Ellsworth's political situation has become in the past few weeks.

It's a candidacy in trouble, and it's one that Democrats in Indiana can't afford to have fail. A bomb of a Senate campaign by Ellsworth will wipe out what's left of the Democratic Party in Indiana. It will cripple their always weak statewide field and it will destroy their slim chances of holding on to a majority in the House.

For Indiana Democrats, Brad Ellsworth is too big to fail.