Let's just be clear here.
Brad Ellsworth doesn't have a Senate campaign. He has a shameful farce.
Let's look at some of the fundamentals of the race.
Brad the Beautiful trails by twenty-plus points in polling, a fairly consistent double-digit margin that hasn't moved despite the Democrats throwing everything they could at Dan Coats (including a lot of stuff they just invented and made up out of thin air).
In the last quarter alone, despite Coats having to emerge from a primary, he raised around two and a half times as much money ($1.3 million to $529,000) as Ellsworth. Thanks to money Brad the Beautiful had left over from his House campaign fundraising, Coats still trails a tad in cash-on-hand, but the fundraising trend line is stark (and likely to get less pretty for Ellsworth as polling continues to be bad, the environment for Democrats continues to deteriorate, and the donors look elsewhere).
On top of these ominous fundamentals come the almost comical missteps of the Ellsworth campaign.
First came the campaign ad attacking special interests and lobbyists.
Then came the video of Ellsworth attending a big bucks fundraiser held by special interests and lobbyists.
Better yet, the fundraiser was in Canada.
Along with the first ad came the inevitable earned media for being the first Senate candidate up on the air.
The problem with that earned media?
It all focused on either Ellsworth claiming to have been a sheriff for 25 years (sheriffs in Indiana are limited to two 4-year terms, or a total of eight years in office), or him ignoring his time in Congress (and often mentioning that he doesn't want to talk about his voting record, something implicitly linking him in the readers' minds to everything that they're upset about in Washington).
From Fort Wayne to Louisville to the nationwide coverage in the Associated Press, the news coverage of Ellsworth's ads and his misleading statements has been uniformly negative.
I'm no expert, but I don't think that's exactly the sort of earned media that Brad the Beautiful was hoping to get out of his first commercial.
And when you consider that the ad buy for the first commercial was tiny and more people read the earned media than saw the ad, you can see how this might be something of a problem.
Then came the second commercial in which, unbelievably, Ellsworth repeated the claim about being a sheriff for 25 years.
Ellsworth and the Democrats' response to this amounted to sticking their fingers in their ears and screaming "I can't hear you! LA LA LA! Dan Coats used to be a lobbyist! LA LA LA!"
If you wrote this stuff and tried to sell it as a script for a novel or a movie or a TV show, nobody would believe it.
At a certain point (and we're probably at that point already if not nearly there), Hoosiers are going to stop taking Brad Ellsworth seriously.
And why wouldn't they?
Brad the Beautiful has obviously shown a shocking lack of sincerity and honesty in the opening moves of his campaign, and that's a bad thing in a year in which people are, as Archie Bunker once put it, "sick of Washington and its works."
Another real question, I suppose, will be how much longer the media will accept the absurdity of the Democratic talking points in response to Ellsworth twice lying about his law enforcement career.
Not too long ago, a Democratic candidate for Senate in Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal, got into a world of trouble for claiming he was a Vietnam veteran when in fact he got five deferments and eventually became a reservist who spent his time in uniform organizing a Toys for Tots drive.
What Brad the Beautiful is doing here isn't all that different.
In two commercials now, Brad Ellsworth has looked into the camera and told Hoosiers that he was a sheriff for 25-years when everybody knows that's not the case.
It's a blatant lie, and it's something for which Hoosier voters will hold him accountable. (The media seems unwilling to let it slide, either.)
These ads were designed to introduce Brad Ellsworth to Hoosiers outside of southwestern Indiana for the first time. I don't think that anyone would seriously contend that the coverage Ellsworth has gotten would be the sort of introduction he (or his campaign, such as it is) wanted to have.
Brad the Beautiful is right about one thing. In this political environment, Hoosiers have a low tolerance for bull. Unfortunately for Democrats, the dispenser of the bull is Ellsworth himself.