Surprising Polling & Reactions on Ryan Budget

The Democrats have been working hard to convince everyone that Republicans want to kill grandma (and they want nobody to be more convinced of this than grandma).

Polling says that they haven't been very successful (particularly with grandma).

Hot Air:

Yesterday, we noted the USA Today/Gallup poll that showed Paul Ryan and Barack Obama in a statistical dead head on their competing budget plans, but today’s Gallup release is worth a second look. According to their poll, Ryan does best in a surprising demographic, and that may end up making it more difficult to sell Obama’s “Mediscare!” campaign:

Ryan’s plan includes a complete restructuring of Medicare for people younger than 55. Pluralities of middle-aged Americans as well as those 65 and older prefer Ryan’s plan to Obama’s, while adults 18 to 29 show more support for Obama’s, 53% to 30%. These findings are in line with approval of Obama by age, more generally.

Only 18-29YO voters favor Obama’s plan, 53/30. All other demographics show a six-point edge to Ryan, with approval edging up from 45% to 48%. The finding on the seniors may actually not matter all that much, since Ryan’s plan offers some grandfathering (if you’ll pardon the expression) for current recipients.

The support among those 50-64 years of age, 47/41, is actually more telling. After all, these are the people who have spent their lives paying into the system, and could be expected to be the most resentful of entitlement reform when they’re on the cusp of qualifying for them. Yet they seem more comfortable with Ryan’s overhaul than with Obama’s cuts-and-status-quo approach.

Why? Perhaps because they are used to making their own decisions for themselves. A voucher plan puts them more in control of their own health care, rather than relying on the whim of a government board like the IPAB to decide when, how, and if they’ll get coverage for care. It seems interesting that the age demographic with the least life experience in making their own decisions feels most comfortable with the top-down diktat approach.

These numbers give Ryan an edge in the debate, although a thin one to be sure. Obama’s attempt to frighten seniors into panic at the idea of choice and self-management doesn’t seem to be working terribly well, and Ryan has a wide opening to argue for the American values of individual choice as a means for reform.

I have another theory about why this is. I don't think it has so much to do with seniors being able to make their own decisions (though that might be a part of it) as it has to do with 1) seniors no longer having any trust whatsoever for Obama and Democrats (they did already slash half a trillion out of Medicare already and are causing the program to go bankrupt) and 2) a stark realization among seniors that paying for the current system will bankrupt the country (and probably result in them getting nothing). A lot of seniors might be wondering if it isn't better to fix things than to remain with a system that is unfortunately unsustainable.

After all, wouldn't it be an encouraging thought to think that every generation of Americans recognizes that this country doesn't exist for a generation alone, and that no one generation should leave the country worse off for generations that follow?

That'd be an encouraging thought. I don't know whether it's a widespread one, though. We can always hope.

There's also polling comparing the Obama budget (laughable bankruptcy-inducing farce that it is) with the Ryan budget. They poll even.

The cynic in me finds that discouraging, given the fundamental and obvious problems with Obama's spend-o-rama budget. At the same time, it's encouraging that the Democrats' naked scare tactics (once so tried-and-true) don't appear to be working this time.

Maybe there's hope after all. Nah.

Then there are the reactions.

The Democrats (with some help from the media) have been attempting to construct a narrative of constituent rage at Republicans over the Ryan budget, hoping perhaps to stir up a repeat of what they themselves faced over ObamaCare in the summer and fall of 2009.

The problem with that narrative is that there hasn't been any constituent rage.

The New York Times has attempted to sell the narrative with vague invented "reporting", but has fallen woefully short when compared to much better factual and specifics-laden journalism by Slate.

The New York Times headline? "House G.O.P. Members Face Voter Anger Over Budget"

The Slate headline? "Wanted: Angry Liberals"

Just look at the near-riot (not) that Paul Ryan faced.

Commentary adds:

Since Congress has been in recess for the last week and a half, it’s a good bet that had there been a large number of summer-of-2009-style town hall meetings, with constituents beating up Republican members of Congress over the Ryan budget, drowning them out with boos, the clips would have been all over the airwaves. Do you think that MSNBC and CNN would have spiked video like that? Neither do I.

But it gets better!

Here in the 9th District, which has something of a reputation for its testy town halls where people get "enraged" at their Congressional representation (or was it their former Congressman that got enraged at them?), Todd Young's town halls have been filled with "quiet crowds".

If folks in the Bloody Ninth aren't boiling over about it, then there's no there there.

Congressman Mike Pence, meanwhile, had only one person complain about the Ryan budget. Most of the complaints were about government spending or doing too much:

The first comment Rep. Mike Pence heard at a town hall meeting Wednesday was a complaint about Republican efforts to revamp Medicare.

Randy Hisner of Decatur said Congress is “reneging” on its pledge to provide health insurance to older people.

“I don’t think any voucher will be big enough for me to buy private insurance” in retirement, Hisner said about the GOP proposal.

His turned out to be the last comment on the subject.

At least three congressmen – among them Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the architect of the House budget proposal – have been booed at recent town hall meetings because of their plan to privatize and subsidize Medicare for those currently younger than 55.

An audience of more than 100 people at Riverside Center spared Pence, R-6th. Instead, he listened to gripes about the threat of socialism, people who buy “junk” with food stamps, taxes on businesses and environmental restrictions on oil companies.

The polling on ObamaCare looked nothing like the polling on the Ryan budget. It's no wonder that there's nothing to report in terms of constituent anger over the budget; they're just not enraged.