In the last election in my county, one of the local Republican candidates was the subject of some particularly nasty (and completely untrue and baseless) rumors.
This is, unfortunately, par for the course for politics in southern Indiana and it seems to be a particular tactic among certain Democrats in my county.
This candidate was new to politics, having never for office before. The candidate was sort of surprised to be subjected to this sort of thing, particularly since the rumors were so easy to disprove.
At one of the many chicken dinners that are the staple of campaigning for local office in these parts, one of the incumbent Democratic elected officials who was seeking reelection came up to the candidate and asked him how things were going.
"You know," the candidate said, "I've learned more new things about myself every day here lately."
The Democratic elected official immediately--and curiously--responded, "I didn't have anything to do with that."
It turned out that staffers in this elected official's office were out peddling the false rumors about the candidate (and the candidate wasn't even that particular elected official's opponent).
Come election day, the candidate won despite the rumors. In fact, the candidate won by a landslide. And the Democratic elected official got beat by a pretty good margin, too.
The endless rumors of a third candidate that seem to crop up with curious regularity in Indiana Republican Senate primary remind me of the rumors the candidate was hearing.
Invariably, some rumor comes up that somebody is considering a Senate bid.
When later asked if they are considering a Senate bid, the supposed candidate expresses no interest whatsoever. They, in essence, are learning new things about themselves--their supposed interest in being a Senate candidate--whenever these rumors come up.
At some point, this sort of pattern has got to get old.
Richard Mourdock isn't going to run for the United States Senate,
they said, he's going to be Mike Pence's lieutenant governor.
This was
news to Mourdock, who went on to declare his candidacy for the Senate. It was also presumably news to the Pence folks.
Then, with Mourdock in, in June we
saw rumors from many of the same people that former Congressman David McIntosh
was going to join the Senate primary.
This was news to McIntosh, who was instead
eyeing a bid against Dan Burton in the 5th Congressional District.
With the McIntosh rumors shot down, in July--just one month later--we
saw rumors from the
same people again that former Congressman Chris Chocola was going to join the Senate primary.
This was news to Chocola, who heads up the Club for Growth and is
very interested in
seeing Dick Lugar defeated but is not interested in being a candidate to do so.
Notice a trend here? Sure, I knew you would.
Now comes the resurrection of Mike Delph, whose Senate candidacy is back from the grave of Delph failing the bar exam this past spring.
The impetus for this latest round of speculation about a Delph candidacy is a particularly curious, and rather obscure, campaign finance reporting error by the Lugar campaign in which they listed Delph as being the contact for a political action committee for Comcast. Delph had not been involved with them since 2007, four years ago.
Then this rather obscure campaign finance reporting error was somehow brought to the attention of a newspaper in Fort Wayne, which promptly
mentioned it in a story. The cynic in me thinks that this information was fed to them by someone interested in making a Delph candidacy a topic of conversation again, but I digress.
This prompted Delph to
ask for a correction, since he is no longer with the Comcast PAC (and isn't giving any money to Lugar either).
That request for a correction, in turn, led to
a story about whether Delph was going to run or not, since Delph's habit when asked that is to regurgitate the same statement he has been giving to reporters since early this year.
Nothing had changed in Delph's answer to questions about him running, but there ended up being a story anyway.
Mike Delph, in a move that certainly made him no friends, then decided to
criticize Mike Pence, Dick Lugar, and Richard Mourdock for not doing more to focus on municipal races.
This was a typical Delphic drive-by shooting. Pull the trigger, then aim after the rounds were fired off.
If Delph expected conservative adulation over him allowing his name to be floated as another candidate in the Senate race, or his criticisms about the 2011 elections, he must have been sorely disappointed. He was instead
roundly criticized.
The Pence folks must have come down on Delph like a ton of bricks, because the next day he took the remarkable step of sending out an email
listing all of Pence's fundraisers for 2011 candidates.
What Delph did not do was note that Richard Mourdock has spoken at almost forty Lincoln Day dinners this year, the primary fundraiser for most local parties that will be supporting municipal candidates running in cities and towns across the state.
Between them, Pence and Mourdock have spoken at roughly two thirds of the state's Lincoln Day dinners. Mourdock alone spoke at thirty-seven (by my last count). And they've done a lot for municipal candidates and local parties this year, while Mike Delph was busy missing almost half of his votes in the state senate and failing the bar exam.
This is not new; both candidates have done a lot for municipal candidates in prior years. I would wager that Pence and Mourdock did more for local parties and local candidates in 2007 than Mike Delph has done so far in 2011.
That doesn't include their help in the years in between, or the other assistance they have provided. Mourdock, for example, has for years donated Indianapolis Indians tickets and personal historical guided tours of the State Capitol that are often auctioned off as fundraisers at Lincoln Day dinners across the state.
Dick Lugar, of course, has been missing in action for a very long time when it comes to helping win municipal and local elections in Indiana. In this, certainly, Delph's criticism was spot-on.
But, regardless how nonsensical Delph's criticism of Pence and Mourdock was, his actions gave succor to the Lugar campaign's ceaseless efforts to pretend that the Senate race might have a third candidate.
One could be forgiven for thinking that Mike Delph is getting perverse pleasure in letting Mourdock twist in the wind, even as he is clearly being used by the Lugar team. The longer Delph floats out there undecided, the more money (particularly out of state money) sits on the sidelines and doesn't flow to Mourdock.
The floating of names for third candidates is a deliberate Lugar strategy. Lugar needs a third candidate to survive next May. And if he can't get one, he can at least try to make donors and outside groups think that there might be one, giving them pause to committing resources to his defeat.
The above examples indicate a deliberate Lugar strategy. They have set the bar for Mourdock's success as a candidate on his fundraising, and his fundraising will depend on him being the lone challenger to Lugar. So long as there is a chance (fictitious or not) that there will be a third candidate, a not insignificant amount of money sits on the sidelines and this false perception makes Mourdock appear a weaker candidate than he actually is in reality.
Does anyone seriously think that Mike Delph could run a better campaign than Richard Mourdock, or would be a stronger candidate? No one thinks such a thing. The only people that claim to do so are more interested in Lugar's reelection than they are in the success of a potential third challenger, or even the reality of there even being a third challenger.
The idea that a state senator that has never run on the ballot statewide with few to no Federal connections is going to enter the race and be a better candidate than someone who has been in the race for seven months, has run statewide twice, and continues to line up extensive national support is just absurd.
The grassroots of the party, to the extent never before seen with an incumbent sitting senator in this or any other state, spoke with one voice earlier this year when eighty percent of the county chairmen urged Mourdock to run. They didn't urge Mike Delph to run, or even wait for Delph to make up his mind (which he previously claimed he would do after the General Assembly was adjourned). They urged Richard Mourdock to run. And there is every indication that in late September, the state tea parties will follow suit.
If Mike Delph doesn't know these things, then he's not remotely near as intelligent a man as I have always believed him to be. Either that or he is living in a fantasyland constructed entirely for his benefit by the whispered sweet nothings of the likes of Brian Howey and David Willkie.
Right now, Dick Lugar has only an imaginary friend to be the third candidate in this race. If he wants, Mike Delph can be Dick Lugar's friend. But I think everyone that wants to see Lugar beat would just as soon not see that happen.
I'm inclined, his shoot-then-aim style notwithstanding, to think that Mike Delph is a pretty smart guy. Richard Mourdock is twenty years older than him (and Lugar has twenty years on Mourdock and is twice Delph's age, by comparison). If Mourdock is elected, and serves two terms, Mike Delph (perhaps by then even a United States congressman and not merely a state senator) will still be younger than Mourdock when campaigning to succeed him.
In the end, Mike Delph can run in 2012. The question won't be whether he can win; he can't. The question will be whether conservatives in the state will ever forgive him for it if he wants to run for something else later on.
Any fair reading of the mood of conservatives in the Republican Party is that they are becoming less forgiving of such things, not more. Delph almost certainly has to know that.